Print ISSN: 1681-6900

Online ISSN: 2412-0758

Keywords : calibration and validation


Assessment of Future Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources of Khabour River Catchment, North Of Iraq

Lena Haitham; Mustafa Al-Mukhtar

Engineering and Technology Journal, 2022, Volume 40, Issue 5, Pages 695-709
DOI: 10.30684/etj.v40i5.1925

In arid and semi-arid areas, assessing the potential impact of climate change on water availability is of critical importance for achieving better management of future water resources. Iraq as one example of those areas is expected to experience more stress on water due to the climatological characteristics and to the rapid population growth in addition to the policy of the riparian upstream countries. Therefore, the present study aims to quantify the impacts of climate change on the Khabour River catchment north of Iraq, which is one of the riparian catchments between Iraq and Turkey. The HEC-HMS model was firstly calibrated and validated against daily streamflow data measured for the period 01Jan2004-30Jun2009 near the catchment outlet at Zakho station. Thereafter, the future climate changes data from the HadGEM2_ES model was fed into the calibrated HEC-HMS model to quantify the future water resources availability. The impacts of climate change on the water under four possible scenarios of RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5) of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations for three future slice periods (2021-2030), (2041-2050), and (2061-2070); was assessed in attribution to that from the period (2000-2009). Results show that the implemented HEC-HMS model was superior in modeling the streamflow data. NSE, R² and RMSE value was 0.871, 0.89 and 26.7, respectively, for calibration and 0.936, 0.9364 and 18.0, respectively for validation. The results also suggest that annual river runoff will likely decrease under all scenarios of RCPs and time stages of the future period.

Modelling of Future Water Use Scenarios Using WEAP Model: A Case Study in Baghdad City, Iraq

Mustafa M. Al-Mukhtar; Ghasaq S. Mutar

Engineering and Technology Journal, 2021, Volume 39, Issue 3A, Pages 488-503
DOI: 10.30684/etj.v39i3A.1890

Iraq is one of the Middle East countries that suffer from water scarcity. In addition to the water policy of the upstream riparian countries; rapid population increase, economic growth, and climate changes are the major stressors of water resources available for domestic and agricultural sectors in this country. Therefore, it is of importance to determine the optimal water management methodology. This study aims to identify the optimal water allocation among the domestic, agricultural, and industrial sectors of Baghdad city under present and potential future scenarios. As such, the WEAP model was used to assess and analyze the current and projected balance of water resource management. The model was firstly calibrated and validated using the monthly streamflow data at Sarai station on the Tigris River. Subsequently, the calibrated model was fed with different future scenarios over the period 2020-2040. The employed future scenarios included normal growth population rate (I), high growth population rate (II), halved river discharges (III), combined scenario of the high population with halved water flow (ΙV) and the simulated future water year type scenario (V). Results proved that the WEAP model satisfactorily modeled the water supply/demand in Baghdad with R2 and Pbias of 0.73 and 2.43%, respectively during the validation period. Also, it was found that the water demand and supply were unmet under all proposed future scenarios which implies that there is a swift need for sustainable water management in Iraq and in Baghdad.