Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

• Hasan H. Joni ¹
• Mustafa H. Jasim ²

¹ Civil Engineering Dept., University of Technology-Iraq, Alsina’a street, 10066 Baghdad, Iraq.

² Civil, Engineering, University of Technology, Baghdad

Abstract

In this paper, the SPSS program (version 25) and Binary Logistic Regression Model were used to implement and identify the risk factors that affect traffic accidents on Baghdad highways. Due to the increase in the number of traffic accidents that led to injuries and deaths in Iraq during the past years and the lack of specialized studies in traffic accidents, especially on highways, this required the preparation of a study to know the causes of accidents and to explore the factors that have a relative impact on (the severity of the accident). Four highways in the capital, Baghdad, were chosen in this study, major and vital in terms of the number of drivers who use them daily, which are (Mohamed Al-Qasim Expressway, Army Canal Expressway, Salah Al-Din Street (Expressway), and Baghdad International Airport Street (Expressway)). Three hundred and forty-nine traffic accident forms were collected from the traffic directorates on both sides of Al-Karkh and Al-Rusafa for the years from 2006 to 2019. After the analysis by Binary Logistic Regression, the results showed that (contributing factors, road condition, cause of an accident like (parking on highway, loss of control, lack of attention, sudden stopping and lack of attention), vehicle body type, speed). Resulting from the BLR model.

Graphical Abstract

Highlights

• Loss of control of the vehicle by the driver for any reason is one of the main causes of accidents on the highways in the capital, Baghdad.
• Traffic accidents are more severe (fatal) when heavy vehicles are involved in the accident.
• Driving at high and violated speed more than 120 km/hr on local highways results in fatal accidents.

Keywords

• Accident severity
• Binary Logistic Regression Baghdad Expressway
• Risk factors

Main Subjects

• Civil